Monday, May 24, 2010

Will Facebook's revenues drown Twitter?

Facebook is rumored to be at $1B/yr revenue run-rate. In addition Facebook's revenue stream is likely to keep growing at a rapid clip. Not least because Facebook has been successful in installing Facebook credits as the virtual currency of choice for casual games that run on top of it's social network.

Twitter on the other hand has far fewer resources. I don't have the dollar figures for Twitter's run-rate but they are unlikely to be more than a tenth of Facebook's revenues. VC funding helps but even a hefty total of $160M will take Twitter only so far against Facebook.

Barring serious mistakes by Facebook, it seems clear that Facebook would win a long-running battle of attrition against Twitter. What's Twitter to do then? M&A comes to mind but given the large amount of funding, a robust and growing user base and continued mega-coverage in the press, it is unlikely that Twitter's investors/managers would sell in the near term. That leaves Twitter with the difficult choice of finding higher ground elsewhere - perhaps by focusing on the relatively unique needs of SMS users in the emerging markets or by building a specialized promotion/Ad engine for specific business verticals and consumer segments.

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